Why Confidence, Not Politics, Will Define New York Real Estate in 2026

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By Frances Katzen
Founder, The Katzen Team at Douglas Elliman
Top 10 Broker Nationwide | $3.5B+ Career Sales

2026 isn’t shaping up to look like any cycle we’ve just lived through. The past year was loud with rising rates, political noise, endless predictions about what might break next. And yet, instead of pulling back, New York did what it always does. It adjusted and kept moving. Beneath the headlines, the luxury market has been doing its own thing, and the level of conviction we’ve seen late in the year speaks volumes.

In the final two weeks of October alone, Manhattan saw 67 contracts signed above $4 million. That’s more than triple the roughly 20 contracts per week that most of us consider a healthy luxury market. Even in the immediate aftermath of the mayoral election, when many expected buyers to pause, there were 24 deals signed above $10 million in a single week. That doesn’t happen in a market that’s nervous or retreating. It happens when experienced buyers see value and move. At the top end, real estate decisions aren’t driven by headlines or week-to-week politics. They’re driven by confidence, scarcity, and long-term positioning.

What I’m seeing among New York buyers right now comes down to a few simple truths. Fear exists, but flight does not. Ultra-high-net-worth buyers may be adding second or third homes elsewhere, but that’s about diversification, not abandonment. They still want a foothold in the city where careers, culture, and capital intersect. At the same time, uncertainty has created opportunity. The most seasoned buyers understand that transitional moments are often when real value appears, when competition thins just enough to make smart entries possible. And importantly, confidence is returning fastest at the top. With so many luxury transactions happening in cash, buyers aren’t waiting around for rate cuts to tell them when to act. They already know.

Looking ahead, pricing will be dictated less by macro forecasts and more by inventory or the lack of it. We’re moving into a year where fully renovated, well-located, turnkey homes are going to be increasingly hard to find. Developers slowed or reworked projects over the past two years, and that pause is going to show up as a tighter pipeline just as demand continues to normalize. When great product is limited, pricing power follows. We’re already seeing this in neighborhoods that offer what buyers actually want right now: proximity to work, culture, dining, and a true urban lifestyle.

The new year will bring a clear reshuffling of where strength shows up. Areas like NoMad, parts of Midtown, and well-amenitized sections of the Financial District are positioned to outperform because they now deliver convenience alongside elevated living. Brooklyn remains fiercely competitive, particularly in established neighborhoods tied to strong schools and community infrastructure. One of the most intense pressure points continues to be the $4 million to $6 million range, where demand for move-in-ready homes far exceeds supply. Buyers in that tier are far less willing to take on major renovations, and properties that need work are feeling it.

Despite all the political commentary about New York’s future, the city continues to outperform the broader narratives about cooling or contraction. The value here has never been just about square footage. It’s about access to opportunity, access to networks, and access to long-term wealth creation. Every time the noise gets louder, buyers are reminded that New York’s role in the global economy can’t simply be replicated elsewhere. Many will add homes in places like Palm Beach or the Caribbean, but they rarely give up their New York presence entirely. The pull of the city remains as strong as ever.

As we move into the new year, I expect a thoughtful, measured start rather than a hesitant one, with momentum building steadily into the spring. If rates continue to ease, even modestly, a lot of sidelined demand could re-enter quickly, creating a meaningful snapback by mid-year. Stability will likely return before affordability does, but this market has never waited for perfect conditions to move forward. The advantage in 2026 will belong to those who act with intention rather than speculation, and who understand that timing still matters.

I came to New York at 15 to dance, and the lesson I learned then still applies today. This city rewards momentum. It rewards people who step forward while others are waiting. The buyers who moved early will be the ones best positioned when the rest of the market catches up.

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The Best New Luxury Buildings for an Epic New Year’s Eve Soirée

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New Year’s Eve has officially entered its “host era.” More renters (and their friend groups) are skipping the velvet-rope scramble in favor of buildings that feel like ready-made private clubs—think skyline lounges, private dining suites, and rooftop setups that do half the work for you. The new luxury flex isn’t just the apartment; it’s the amenity stack that can carry a real party, from the first cocktail to the last countdown toast.

Below, five standout buildings in Brooklyn and Philadelphia—plus one Center City icon—where the communal spaces are designed to host.

The Dupont (Brooklyn, NY)

Rockefeller Group’s first residential project in Brooklyn, The Dupont, is an instant standout thanks to its unparalleled location along the North Brooklyn waterfront in Greenpoint as well as striking interiors by AD100 design firm Workstead. These elements come together beautifully with the property’s Rooftop Clubhouse, which feels almost tailor-made for a New Year’s Eve bash. With sweeping East River, Manhattan and Greenpoint views, the design-forward space delivers the kind of cinematic backdrop typically reserved for penthouse parties, no planning required. Image credit: VMI Studio.

544 Carroll (Brooklyn, NY)

Avery Hall’s newly debuted luxury rental tower at the nexus of Park Slope and Gowanus, 544 Carroll, offers one of the borough’s most elegant options for an intimate, high-design gathering. The property’s striking Private Dining Room has been outfitted with a dramatic, heavily veined marble slab table that immediately anchors the space, as well as midcentury-inspired furniture and a convenient kitchenette. Comfortably accommodating 20 guests, it’s the ideal venue for a sophisticated dinner party before the ball drops. Image credit: Courtesy of Avery Hall.

One Thousand One (Philadelphia, PA)

Signifying Philadelphia’s largest-ever residential development, and designed and developed by Post Brothers, One Thousand One, comes with an unprecedented 140,000 square feet of amenities. The rooftop Canopy Club, known for its resort-style pools, seamlessly transitions into a winter lounge destination thanks to its sleek indoor-outdoor spaces. It’s a glamorous setting for a larger group looking to ring in 2026 high above the city. Image credit: Courtesy of Post Brothers.

ICON

Yes, the name fits. ICON at 1616 Walnut is a historic Art Deco building reborn as a luxury rental with a rooftop Sky Deck that leans heavily into hosting: grilling stations, seating, and dramatic city views that immediately give “private NYE” energy.

Inside, the building’s amenity stack reads like a party toolkit—club-level spaces with a communal kitchen and lounge areas, plus entertainment-friendly touches like billiards and shuffleboard that keep a night moving even after the ball drops.

Piazza Alta (Philadelphia, PA)

One of Philadelphia’s most successful luxury rental communities, Piazza Alta continues Post Brothers’ signature ‘ultra-amenitized’ approach. The on-site Ombra Room feels straight out of a private social club, complete with a stunning cocktail bar, lounge seating, liquor lockers, and cigar and billiards rooms. It’s the perfect choice for a tasteful New Year’s Eve celebration, or for winding down the night with a refined final toast. Image credit: Courtesy of Post Brothers.

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No Signs of a Summer Slowdown: Why Sellers Should Act Now

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 By Louise Phillips Forbes

With 34 years of experience in residential real estate and nearly $6 billion in career sales, I can confidently say: the so-called “summer slump” is nowhere in sight. Buyer demand remains strong, inventory is moving, and motivated sellers are successfully closing deals. The momentum of the spring market has rolled right into summer—and that means opportunity! 

Serious buyers are still actively searching, but soon their attention will shift to summer getaways, sleepaway camps, and second homes. For sellers, my message is clear: If you’re considering listing, don’t wait. Focus on the fundamentals: Preparation, Presentation, and Pricing.

Preparation
With renovation costs continuing to climb, how you present your home can be even more important than how you price it. A well-prepared property portfolio creates emotional impact, cultivates trust, and minimizes buyer objections before they arise.

Presentation
When it comes to presentation, less is more. How we live in a home is very different from how we market it. Sellers should edit down personal items, reduce visual clutter, and rearrange furniture to highlight space, light, and versatility. Buyers need to envision themselves—and their future—the moment they step through the door.

Pricing
The market is no longer looking back. Buyers are evaluating value based on today’s active listings, not sales from months ago. Pricing must reflect what’s happening now. And if interest is slow? As I always advise my clients: “If you haven’t gotten any offers, it’s time to sharpen your pencil and meet the market.”

Representing both sellers and buyers at Brown Harris Stevens, I’ve already closed or put under contract nearly $50 million in prime New York City real estate this year. The opportunities are here, but they won’t last forever.

The summer market is real. The time to act is now.

Xoxo,
Weze

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