A Tale of Two New York Markets: What Fall is Revealing

By Rachel Glazer, Brown Harris Stevens

Fall brings a renewed energy to New York City, and an opportunity to get a clear read on where the market is headed. This year, the new chapter is unmistakable: New York is operating as two markets, and the gap between them is growing.

The high end keeps running

In the first week of October alone, 30 contracts were signed for properties priced at $4 million or more. That is not the profile of a market in retreat. For well-capitalized buyers, the calculus is different from that of the typical purchaser. They are more focused on long-term value, less sensitive to financing costs, and often ready to act when they meet the right property.

Scarcity is also fueling the pace. Exceptional apartments in the best buildings and locations rarely come to market, and when they do, serious buyers know hesitation can mean losing out. That dynamic keeps activity at the top of the market strong even as conditions elsewhere tighten.

Affordability pressures everyone else

Below the $4 million tier, the story differs. As interest rates rise, monthly carrying costs climb, and buyers at lower and middle price points are being squeezed. Qualifying for a mortgage is harder, down payments stretch further, and many would-be buyers are choosing to wait or stay put. The result is a market where the same city can feel booming to one buyer and out of reach to another. The divide between New York’s wealthiest buyers and everyone else is not closing. If anything, it is widening.

The pied-à-terre surcharge adds uncertainty

Policy is part of the story, too. The city’s pied-à-terre surcharge has been in the news, and buyers are paying attention. October 13 was the deadline for filing for an exemption, and a recent court ruling found that the city mishandled parts of the tax’s rollout. Importantly, the tax remains in place while the city appeals.

That leaves buyers in an awkward spot. Those considering a second home in New York must weigh a tax that is still in force against the possibility that the outcome could change. My advice is practical: work with your attorney and accountant to understand whether you qualify for an exemption, meet the filing deadline, and avoid making decisions based on speculation about how the appeal will resolve. Uncertainty tends to slow decision-making, and it is worth watching how it affects buyer behavior in the months ahead.

Rentals cool after a frenzy

The rental market also tells its own story. From April through June, demand surged and competition was intense. Since then, the pace has begun to simmer. Renters have more room to negotiate and are taking more time with their decisions than they were a few months ago.

It is important to keep perspective, however. Cooling does not mean cheap. Rents remain higher than they were in previous years. Landlords, too, are recalibrating, balancing asking rents against the risk of longer vacancies. 

What to do now

For buyers at the high end, the fall remains an active window, but diligence matters, particularly around the pied-à-terre tax. For buyers at lower price points, patience and preparation are essential: get pre-approved, know your true budget at today’s rates, and be ready to move quickly on the right opportunity. For renters, this softer moment is a chance to negotiate, though no one should expect a return to pre-frenzy pricing.

Rachel Glazer

New York has always been a city of contrasts, and its real estate market reflects that. Understanding what that means for your strategy is the most valuable step you can take this fall.

Rachel Glazer is a market authority at Brown Harris Stevens representing high-net-worth individuals across the city’s top neighborhoods. 

---

Have a listing you think should be featured contact us or submit here to tell us more! Follow Off The MRKT on Twitter and Instagram, and like us on Facebook.